Probability, payout rate and volatility — worked out
Published on · Fabian Roth · 3 min read
Every figure here comes from publicly available information. There are no private measurement series — those would need hundreds of thousands of rounds.
Where the numbers come from
Stated up front, because in this genre it rarely is: the calculations below use only figures that appear in games' info panels and in published terms. There is no in-house analysis "of millions of spins" here — a statistically sound measurement of a payout rate would need hundreds of thousands of rounds and cannot be done on the side.
Calculation 1: what a rate costs
The payout rate is the share returned across very many rounds. The remainder is the house edge, and it acts on turnover — stake times number of spins.
| Rate | House edge | Expected cost on €1,000 turnover |
|---|---|---|
| 97 % | 3 % | €30 |
| 96 % | 4 % | €40 |
| 94 % | 6 % | €60 |
| 88 % | 12 % | €120 |
The reference quantity matters: €1,000 of turnover at a €1 stake is exactly 1,000 spins — with a five-second minimum interval, a good hour and a half.
Calculation 2: what volatility does to a budget
The rate says nothing about how the money comes back. At low volatility many small hits arrive; at high volatility long runs without a win and rarely a large one. At an identical rate the same budget therefore lasts a different length of time — and the chance of ending a session ahead is smaller at high volatility, even though the possible win is larger.
Calculation 3: why progressions fail
| Round | Stake | Total at risk | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | €1 | €1 | +€1 |
| 4 | €8 | €15 | +€1 |
| 7 | €64 | €127 | +€1 |
| 10 | €512 | €1,023 | +€1 |
By round ten, €1,023 is at risk to win one euro — and with a €1 cap per spin this sequence ends on German slots after the first doubling anyway. That is no accident: the stake cap targets exactly this behaviour.
What follows
Two numbers decide the cost — the rate and the turnover. You influence the first when choosing a game and the second through stake and time. Everything else is distribution. Where the figures are is shown in the article on the info panel, how to fix time and budget in the article on sustainable play.
How to read win announcements is in the article on legends and announcements, and why symbols change nothing in the arithmetic in the article on symbols.
Ready to make the numbers work in your favor? Then head back to the LuckyMinning Casino homepage, sign up, and let the mathematics of luck work for you. Your personal jackpot is waiting – calculable and within reach!